27 March 2019

Just Observin' - The Boeing 737, Luddites and Other Stuff

The Boeing 737 is one of the most (maybe the most) mass-produced airliner ever.  A late version, the “Max 8”, is grounded.   Twice, the aircraft unexpectedly dived into the ground.  There are anecdotal reports that pilots have saved that from happening again and again.  (Anecdotal reports, if true, are not bad.  It just means that they aren’t yet subject to statistics and analysis.)  Supposedly, what causes this is a mix of instrumentation and software.

That’s pretty much all I know about the facts.  I’m not a pilot and if you put me alone in front of an airliner, prepare to meet thy doom.

An airliner that automatically rights itself and doesn’t depend on  human input sounds like a good idea.  Self-driving cars are attractive, if a little scary because they are unfamiliar.   Didn’t one of the darn things run down a pedestrian?  (I believe that’s true, but nevertheless, it’s anecdotal.)

This ink-stained wretch has railed against rear-viewing cameras in cars.  Now that I have one, I admit that I use it.  Will I forget how to use mirrors?   I hope not, but I don't practice as much. Does the camera make me a little safer?  Yes, probably it does.  I can see things with the camera that I cannot with  mirrors and hear audible signals if I’m getting close to things.  But does dependence on technology make me a slave to technology?  

Of course.  

To the extent we use technology, we do not practice the skills that technology replaced.  This does not mean that the skills are absent, but that they aren’t used as much.  A couple of years ago, two pilots flew an hour past their destination.  The autopilot was on. They were discussing things that had zero to do flying the plane.  The pilots were fired.  But if something had gone wrong with the plane, I bet they could have dealt with it effectively. 

I can start a campfire with flint and steel.  It’s been a while since I have done that.  A match is easier; a lighter, easier still; a fire-starter easiest of all.   To remain put to the Luddite philosophy, should I go for the lowest-tech approach in all that I do?

This is akin to an argument about socialism.  America is socialist as hell.  Don’t believe me?  When the roads are covered with snow and ice, who do we DEMAND come?  The Socialist Department of Highways.   Hey, I live in walking distance to my work.  Why should MY tax dollars contribute to pure socialism.  (Hey, now, Medicare is a right – don’t mess with my Medicare.)

It is ALWAYS a trade-off between convenience and ability, between independence and practicality and, most of all, between our estimate of who will be harmed and who benefited by one approach and who will be harmed and who benefited by another approach.   The person mowed down by the self-driving car probably is not or was not a fan of that technology, even if the self-driving car would save 1,000 lives a year.   We lack the facts and the cold discipline to gather the facts and live with what the facts show.  What do immigrants (legal, illegal, blah, blah, blah) take from American society?  What do they give?  What are the numbers?  Does banning certain weapons save more people than might use them for defense?  What are the numbers?  

The older I get, the dumber I feel.  Maybe that’s good.  A dangerous creature is the person who “knows the one true answer.” But we need to have the discipline to throw out our preconceptions and find the numbers, find the facts.


Mizpah.

No comments: